Consumers’ views of their expected family financial situation, six months hence (not included in calculating the Expectations Index) recovered in November, after ticking down for the past two months. Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations receded back to 5.7 percent after a one-month uptick to 5.9 percent. Compared to last month, expectations that interest rates will rise in the year ahead ticked down, but consumers’ outlook for stock prices continued to weaken in November. “Consumer expectations for the next six months recovered in November, reflecting improved confidence about future business conditions, job availability, and incomes. By contrast, when asked to assess their current family financial conditions (a measure not included in calculating the Present Situation Index), the share reporting ‘good’ rose, and those citing ‘bad’ fell, suggesting consumer finances remain healthy heading into the holiday season.” More consumers said that business conditions were ‘good’ compared to last month, but more also said they were ‘bad.’ Regarding the employment situation, more consumers said that jobs were ‘plentiful’ compared to October, but the number saying jobs were ‘hard to get’ also increased. Peterson added: “Assessments of the present situation ticked down in November, driven by less optimistic views on current job availability, which outweighed slightly improved views on the state of business conditions. Nonetheless, write-in responses revealed consumers remain preoccupied with rising prices in general, followed by war/conflicts and higher interest rates.” General improvements were seen across the spectrum of income groups surveyed in November. November’s increase in consumer confidence was concentrated primarily among householders aged 55 and up by contrast, confidence among householders aged 35-54 declined slightly. “This improvement reflected a recovery in the Expectations Index, while the Present Situation Index was largely unchanged. “Consumer confidence increased in November, following three consecutive months of decline,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. This is consistent with the short and shallow recession we anticipate in the first half of 2024. While consumer fears of an impending recession abated slightly-to the lowest levels seen this year-around two-thirds of consumers surveyed in November still perceive a recession to be “somewhat” or “very likely” to occur over the next 12 months. The Expectations Index-based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions-rose to 77.8 (1985=100) in November, up from its downwardly revised reading of 72.7 in October.ĭespite this month’s improvement, the Expectations Index remains below 80 for a third consecutive month-a level that historically signals a recession within the next year. The Present Situation Index-based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions-ticked down slightly to 138.2 (1985=100), from 138.6. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in November to 102.0 (1985=100), up from a downwardly revised 99.1 in October. Index Bounces Back After Three Straight Monthly Declines as Expectations Turn Less Gloomy US Consumer Confidence Increased in November Latest Press Release Data are available by age, income, 9 regions, and top 8 states. This monthly report details consumer attitudes, buying intentions, vacation plans, and consumer expectations for inflation, stock prices, and interest rates. The Consumer Confidence Survey® reflects prevailing business conditions and likely developments for the months ahead.
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